Optimal bailout strategies and the drift-controlled probabilistic supercooled Stefan problem

18.11.2021 17:45 - 18:45

Stefan Rigger (U Wien)

Abstract: We consider the problem faced by a central bank which bails out distressed financial institutions that pose systemic risk to the banking sector. In a structural default model with mutual obligations, the central agent seeks to inject a minimum amount of cash to a subset of the entities in order to limit defaults to a given proportion. We prove that the value of the agent's control problem converges as the number of agents goes to infinity, and the limit satisfies a drift-controlled version of the probabilistic supercooled Stefan problem. Solving the associated HJB equations numerically suggests that the agent's optimal strategy is to subsidise banks whose asset values lie in a non-trivial time-dependent region. Finally, we study a linear-quadratic version of the model where instead of the terminal losses, the agent optimises a terminal cost function of the equity values. In this case, we are able to give semi-analytic strategies, which we again illustrate numerically.

Location:
HS 14, 2. OG, OMP1